Each year the Mint produces a massive amount of coins. Last year alone over 13.1 billion coins were produced for circulation, the year before 14.8 billion, and each year billions more of the newest models get added to the great sea of circulating coins. With a coin pool in the trillions, it’s no wonder coin enthusiasts never tire of searching through the abyss of coinage, zealously pursuing small treasures with a passion and methodology much like Humphrey Bogart’s character “Dobbs” in the 1948 classic Treasure of The Sierra Madre (hopefully without going full lunatic as in the movie).
With so many coins to be found in the ether, coin-roll hunting is replete with stories of great finds picked from the wild. Any YouTube search on coin-roll hunting will find channels extolling stories of great finds: semi-key dates, die varieties from The Cherry Pickers Guide, Indian Cents, Buffalo Nickels, and occasionally 90% silver pieces. Or in this author’s case, finding nineteen silver half dollars out of roll of 20 purchased at a Buena Park, CA bank for $10 in 2015. To keep busy in-between the dry spells of hunting coins, some collectors amass rolls of semi-key dates to sell for a slightly higher premium, but this lacks the heart-stopping thrill of finding silver, or something truly out of the ordinary – until now!
A Modern-Rarity?
On April 2, 2019, the U.S. Mint made a surprise press release announcing the production of 10 million West Point (W) mint mark quarters available through good ol’ fashion circulating coinage. In total the 10 million figure encompasses all five of the America The Beautiful (ATB) releases and will be distributed throughout the year chronologically alongside the (P) and (D) quarters. Message boards quickly lit up and to add to the frenzy, PCGS quickly offered a bounty of $5,000 for the first 2019-W Lowell Quarter submitted for grading and certification. Finally, a new precious stone worth searching for was announced. But is it rare? The combination of low-mintage, distribution via circulation, and a limited window for finding high-grade examples, have the characteristics of a “modern-rarity”, but fall short of such winning such a coveted designation.
A total of two coins were received on the same day to qualify for ‘First Discovery.’ One graded PCGS MS65 and the other graded PCGS MS66.
When it comes to the semantics of coin “rarity”, that term was “coined” by numismatic expert Q. David Bowers in 1992 with the Universal Rarity Scale (URS). The URS is the standard for measuring rarity and goes from 1 – 20. At the top end, URS-1 is a 1/1 known example and moves up to URS-20 designated for known coins in the 250-500K range. Under this scale the 2019-W Quarter is not rare. However, average quarter production of ATB quarters from 2009-2018 is 1.4 billion annually, and when using that figure the odds of someone finding a 2019-W Quarter is less than 1%. With such a paucity of (W) quarters in the overall circulation these fall close to being called a modern-rarity, but as long as eBay is flush with uncirculated W-Mint quarters they would more aptly be termed a modern key find.
Mintage: Low, Historically Low
To paint a picture of the significance of the 2M mintage per 2019-W design, one would have to go all the way back to the 1937-S Quarter to find a circulating example with a lower mintage (1.6M coins). The same holds true for other circulating coins. For example, the closest low mintage dime is the 1931-S at 1.8M coins, the closest nickel is the 1931-S at 1.2M coins, and finally the closest cent is the 1931-S at 866K coins. It becomes clear that mintages this low haven’t been seen in nearly a century. From the perspective of a veteran coin-roll hunter, the odds of finding one of the above coins in bank rolls is very unlikely, making the 2019-W Quarters quite exciting: low mintage coins ready to be plucked from rolls, but only if one is looking now!
The 1937-S Quarter has a mintage of 1.6 million. This PCGS MS66 example has a PCGS Price Guide value of $550.
The 1931-S Dime has a mintage of 1.8 million. This PCGS MS63 example has a PCGS Price Guide value of $375.
The 1931-S Nickel has a mintage of 1.2 million. This PCGS MS66 example has a PCGS Price Guide value of $550.
The 1931-S Cent has a mintage of just 866,000. This PCGS MS63 example has a PCGS Price Guide value of $265.
Since the announcement there have been several inaccurate comparisons of the 2019-W Quarters to other releases, such as the 2009 Lincoln Bicentennial Cents and the 2015 Reverse Proof Dime. The mintage of the 2009 Lincoln Cent was split between four designs, but even the lowest minted design, “The Presidency” (129 million Philadelphia, 198 million Denver) still dwarfs the 2019-W Quarters at 2 million per design. Using the 2009 figures as a comparison, the odds of finding “The Presidency” design was 5.5% in (P) and 8.4% in (D) (versus less than 1% for an individual ‘W’ quarter design). On the other hand, the 2015 Reverse Proof Dime had a mintage of just 74,430 and while this is undoubtably a beautiful numismatic item, its means of distribution was through purchase of the 2015 March of Dimes Special Silver Set, meaning few would ever enter circulation and examples will likely remain pristine. Neither of these are apples-to-apples comparisons for a low-mintage quarter coin only available through circulation, which brings us our next factor in the unique features surrounding the 2019-W: distribution.
Distribution: Circulation Only
The major difference between the 2019-W and all other low mintage modern releases is the manner of distribution. The U.S. Mint knew it was setting a new precedent stating in their press release, “The goal of the initiative is to create excitement about coin collecting by introducing rare coins into circulation, allowing anyone the opportunity to collect the quarters from their pocket change.”
Soon after the press release, several theories began circulating about the best locations for finding a 2019-W Quarter, but according to U.S. Mint Spokesman Michael White, “The coins are available in Federal Reserve Bank inventory on the release date, so they could ship to a bank or retailer the same day. However, depending on a location’s inventory level, and the first-in, first-out shipping policy, it could be weeks or months before they appear in circulation.”
The earliest examples of Lowell and American Memorial Park were discovered nearly simultaneously in Kansas, South Carolina, Florida, Utah, and California in Walmart’s, local banks, and even a gas station. Distribution was not limited to one geographic area.
After production at West Point, the quarters are shipped to Philadelphia and Denver, mixed in, and the distributed to the Federal Reserve banks and made available on the publicly listed dates (mentioned below). Thus, banks with tight inventory control will request and receive rolls quicker than banks with a large back-stock, making it anybody’s guess where the 2019-W Quarters will first be shipped. In this way, circulation becomes the great equalizer of access where wealth and social connection bear no advantage in finding a 2019-W – the gal buying a soda finding one in change might discover a 2019-W Quarter before a wealthy dealer buying $10,000 and frantically searching.
For now, the U.S. Mint states this is a limited initiative, however this hasn’t prevented spin-off theories behind the release. Some have jettisoned the idea West Point mint made an error and rather than covering it up invented the 2019-W program. Others are licking their chops hoping the initiative is the beginning of an annual low-mintage program extended to all circulated coins. Either way, one must marvel at the low-mintage and unique means of distribution. There is one more caveat that makes the 2019-W so unique and is the final factor in its candidacy as a modern find, condition.
Condition: Rapid Attrition
Over one-hundred years ago coin collectors roared with excitement with the launch of the new 1909 Lincoln Cent, replacing the Indian Head Cent after a 50-year run. Enthusiasm for the coin led many to preserve the 1909 Lincoln Cent as a memento, which explains why high-grade examples above MS60 of the series key, the 1909-S VDB, are so plentiful. With its low mintage of 484K, the S VDB is always in demand regardless of condition and I predict the same will happen to the 2019-W Quarters: keenly sought after in any grade, with sharp rises in price for top grades and early pedigrees. (The difference is that in 1909 one could purchase these cents from the Mint).
Right from the start 2019-W Quarters will face dings, scratches, and bag marks via their preparation and distribution. It is clear the 2019-W Quarters are not given any preferential treatment; in a promotional video U.S. Mint Director David J Ryder is seen mixing (W) quarters into bags with a metal scoop (Mr. Ryder, may we suggest a plastic scoop moving forward?). The real abuse begins once the quarters are in circulation soon to face the trials of laundromats, vending machines, and fountain tosses; altogether making the window of opportunity for finding high-grade examples a race against time. For example, the PCGS “First Discovery” examples were graded MS65 and MS66, and these coins faced a mere week in the rough and tumble work of circulation. If the earliest discovered examples only grade in the MS65-MS67 range, will quarters with their large surfaces and open fields ever grade higher? Or will the scrappy manner of distribution haunt the 2019-W releases, adding lore to the scant number of high-grade examples found early enough to be saved from further damage?
A total of 312 coins received the ‘First Week of Discovery’ label for the 2019-W American Memorial Quarter. This label is issued to all 2019-W American Memorial Quarters received within seven days after the ‘First Discovery.’ This MS67 has a PCGS pop of 11. None higher.
The combination of these three factors: mintage, manner of distribution, and a small window for high-grade condition, make the case for these coins becoming a unique find in the pantheon of numismatic history, and the secondary market value has erupted in response. Immediately upon discovery, raw examples of (W) Lowell Quarters sold on eBay in the $120 range, cooling four weeks later to $20, while American Memorial Park and Guam Quarters began selling for $200 after discovery, cooling to a similar range.
GreatCollections, a leading certified coin auction house specializing in PCGS graded coins, was the first major firm to auction the 2019-W Lowell Quarter, graded “First Discovery” by PCGS. Only two of the coins were awarded this designation by PCGS as part of the PCGS 2019 Quarter Quest in which bounties and special designations are given to early examples of the 2019-W Quarters submitted for grading and authentication. Ian Russell, president of GreatCollections commented, “we had an unprecedented number of viewers on this auction - thousands of unique visitors and bidders from not only within the U.S., but also overseas. Even though it was found just days earlier, we knew it was going to sell for thousands of dollars”. Ian’s predictions held true as the quarter sold for an impressive $5,175!
As any seasoned coin collector knows, new releases bring market volatility in the short term, with prices often dipping, then later settling into place. I think the significant factors around the 2019-W will always make it a $15 - $25 raw coin, with graded examples and discovery pedigrees offering a runway for secondary market growth, especially if individual design populations with first pedigrees are low. Sleeper coins to watch are the PCGS “Early Find” pedigrees (available for the first 45 days after discovery). These may not capture the attention of the “First Discovery” counterparts but could carry higher grades. It is a population worth watching as these coins begin to grade.
Next up on the 2019-W releases will be the Texas, San Antonio Mission due to distribute on August 26, 2019, followed by Idaho, River of No Return on November 4, 2019. With bounty prizes for each coin offered by PCGS, a good reference for release dates, discovered coins, and rewards can be found at www.PCGS.com/2019quarterquest.
Whether you find one in pocket change, through variety hunting in coin rolls or in a high dollar auction, the hunt for 2019 West Point Quarters will continue for years to come. Alas, prospectors rejoice! The hunt for a new modern-rarity has begun with the 2019-W Quarter, where will you be when you discover your first?
